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Storm analysis

What WXA/SA is

Storm analysis - every convective cell in the country tracked, scored and projected forward every two minutes, with the rotation inside it tracked as its own object.


WXA/SA - said “wixsa” - is WxAlerts’ own storm analysis. The rest of the site carries what the National Weather Service issued. This is the part that looks at the storms themselves.

Every two minutes it picks out every convective cell in the lower 48, scores how likely each one is to produce severe weather, matches it to the same physical storm it was watching two minutes ago, and projects it forward along its own measured motion. The rotations inside those cells are found and tracked separately, because a storm can be 59 km across with its spin confined to one corner.

There are two things to do with it:

What it tells you

One sentence, on the map and in every notification:

This storm has rotation and a high probability of producing damaging wind, hail or a tornado.

Never “a tornado is happening in this cell.” That is the measurement, not squeamishness. The same storms at the same threshold, scored two ways:

Hit rate False alarm
As a tornado call 42% 58%
As a severe-hazard call 85% 15%

The narrow claim is the one people want, and it cannot carry its own false-alarm rate at any threshold that fires often enough to be a product. So the layer, the API and every notification make the wide one. Where those numbers come from →

The alert levels

Five levels ship, from least to most serious:

Level What it means
Thunderstorm Risk A storm capable of severe weather is heading this way
Thunderstorm Detected A severe storm is on you now
Tornado Risk This storm is rotating and is capable of producing a tornado
Tornado Risk (high) Rotating, with a high probability of severe weather
Tornado Detected A rotation has been located and its path covers you

Detected outranks Risk within a hazard, and the tornado levels outrank the thunderstorm ones. A located rotation whose cone covers your point is more actionable than a probability on the parent cell.

None of these are NWS product names. “Warning” and “Advisory” are product classes with legal definitions attached, and Tornado Warning and Wind Advisory are NWS products verbatim. Every level here names what an instrument observed and instructs nobody to do anything, which is the NWS’s job.

How early it is

Of the severe storms already warned tonight, these are the ones becoming tornado-capable, flagged a median 45 to 54 minutes before a tornado warning is issued on them, with the rotation located to within a couple of kilometers.

That is a triage claim, not a detection claim. On the largest tornado day of 2026, 91 of our 94 cell firings already had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in force, a median 99 minutes before we fired. The forecasters were on those storms long before us, with the correct product. What they did later was upgrade, and upgrading is the moment we are early to.

What the lead-time numbers do and do not claim →

Where to go next

Using it

Under the hood

  • Detection: where a storm object comes from and what the four probabilities are worth.
  • Tracking: motion, identity and the cone.
  • Rotation: couplets, and why a tornado alert cannot be hung off a cell.
  • Accuracy: lead time, hit rates, false alarms and the feed’s own health.